Last year
I correctly predicted 5 out of the top 6 categories. However, I let emotion get in the way of rational thinking and predicted Benjamin Button over Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture. Looking back that was foolish as the Academy formula is simple: you go to the
IMDb vote break down pages for the nominees and look at the Males Aged 45+ section - these are your Acadamy voting elite. Had I done this last year I would have seen this:
Slumdog Millionaire (8.0), Frost/Nixon (7.9), The Reader (7.9), Milk (7.7), and Benjamin Button (7.5).
The formula is good for about eight years, at which point the wave of hype wears off and the voting tends to balance towards historical significance. It's also important to note that adjustments need to be made for Hollywood nostalgia picks and films set in their favourite location: LA.
So, as with last year I have endeavoured to see all nominees in these top six categories before the awards are presented. I’ve seen all ten Best Picture nominees but missed out on two films in the supporting categories this year.
Update: 3 out of 6, but couldn't be happier to see The Hurt Locker take a total of six.
Best Picture
Avatar
PREDICT
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
DESERVES WON
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Double the usual nominees this year - I’m not in favour of this as it’s no longer much of "an honor just to be nominated". Using my formula above, it seems Avatar is the clear winner - I would not have it in my top ten for the year, but good on James for coming back big. It’s unfortunate for Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker, either of these might have won against last year’s competition.
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
WON
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
DESERVES
Colin Firth ( A Single Man)
PREDICT
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
This could go a number of ways. Jeff Bridges is a popular choice and could take it. Clooney won in 2006 for his role in Syriana - I thought he was so well suited to his role in Up in the Air that I’m inclined to say he deserves to win here. I haven’t seen A Single Man but it seems Colin Firth has been dominating this category in other awards shows so I’ll play the percentages here.
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
WON
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
DESERVES
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
PREDICT
Of course I adored Carey Mulligan in An Education, but Gabourey Sidibe was the real stand out this year for her role in Precious. I would be the injustice of the year if Meryl Streep took it out, but that’s how I see the Acadamy voting. Helen Mirren's performance in The Last Stations is one I missed.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon (Invictus)
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
PREDICT DESERVES WON
It’s got to be Christoph Waltz. Stanley Tucci was great in The Lovely Bones - some would say the only redeeming element. Matt Damon was surprisingly good in Invictus (but didn’t really do much) and Woody Harrelson was outstanding for at least half of The Messenger, but Christoph Waltz will easily take this out.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz (Nine)
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Mo’Nique (Precious)
PREDICT DESERVES WON
The Up in the Air gals were superb, Vera Farmiga being the stand out of the two, but the Academy will look no further then Mo’Nique. Maggie Gyllenhaal wasn’t doing a whole lot of acting in Crazy Heart and Penelope had her turn last year.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
DESERVES PREDICT WON
James Cameron (Dances with Smurfs)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
This will come down to Cameron and Bigelow. I have a feeling the Academy still don’t "get" Tarantino, but he should still be a strong contender. Kathryn Bigelow has done this the hard way and fully deserves all the plaudits for her work here.
See also:
The 2009 Film Year in Review